Credit Booms Gone Bust

April 2019 - June 2019

Webinar Series +

Description

A Financial Stability, Economic History and Complexity Economics Working Group Webinar Series

Project Description: Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff tell the history of financial crisis as a tale of excessive public debt. But what more commonly drives financial instability is excessive private debt. Financial crises are credit booms gone bust. But what are the driving forces underlying credit expansion and contraction?

This project aims to introduce young scholars to the frontiers of research on private debt and credit cycles. We are honored to welcome three top notch scholars in the field who will hold lectures on their ongoing research agendas. Selected attendees will be invited to INET's Private Debt Initiative conference in New York, 20 - 21 June, 2019. Young scholars who would like to attend the PDI conference should send their CV and a short statement of motivation (max 500 words) to eh@youngscholarsinitiative.org

The lectures may be edited and uploaded to the INET website as part of its education initiative.

Project Plan: We plan to meet every Thursday from 1 p.m. to 2 p.m. EDT (the exact time can be rescheduled according to the geographic distribution of participants and the needs of external presenters). We will have presentations from senior scholars on a respective topic alternating every two week For a preliminary outline of the webinar series, see the plan below. A selected number of young scholars, based on active participation of the webinars, academic qualifications, diversity and other factors, will be provided with a travel stipend and accommodation to attend INET's Private Debt Initiative conference. At the conference young scholars will have the chance to meet a great number of outstanding academics, practitioners and journalists working in the field of private debt.
Text(s):

  • Schularick, M., & Taylor, A. M. (2012). Credit Booms Gone Bust: Monetary Policy, Leverage Cycles, and Financial Crises, 1870–2008.​ American Economic Review, 102(2), 1029-61.
  • Baron, M., & Xiong, W. (2017). Credit Expansion and Neglected Crash Risk. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 132(2), 713-764.
  • De Stefani, A. (2017). Waves of Optimism: House Price History, Biased Expectations and Credit Cycles. Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.

UPCOMING EVENTS

There are no upcoming events in this project.

PAST EVENTS

Webinar

Online

4 Apr 2019

Prof. Moritz Schularick - The Great Leveraging: Credit and the Macroeconomy

We are delighted to have Prof. Moritz Schularick (University of Bonn, INET) join us for the first of our three-part webinar series on private debt and the credit cycle. This is a webinar for students with research interests in empirical macro-finance. We will study the growth of finance and ask how and why credit cycles and time variation in the price of risk in financial markets affect the macroeconomy and financial stability. We will have a quick introduction by the organizers, followed by a 45 minute lecture by Prof. Schularick. We will have about 15 minutes left for questions and discussion. We look forward to seeing you all online!

Learn more

Webinar

Online

18 Apr 2019

Prof. Matthew Baron - Credit Expansion and Neglected Crash Risk

We are delighted to welcome Prof. Matthew Baron (Cornell University, INET) join us for the second of our three-part webinar series on private debt and the credit cycle. This is a webinar for students with research interests in empirical macro-finance. We will study the overoptimism and neglect of bank equity crash risk by financial markets when bank credit is expanding, and its implications for the macroeconomy and financial stability. We will have a 45 minute lecture by Prof. Baron, after which we will have about 15 minutes left for questions and discussion. We look forward to seeing you all online!

Learn more

Webinar

Online

8 May 2019

Dr. Alessia De Stefani - Housing, Mortgages and the Macroeconomy

Join us for a webinar with Dr. Alessia De Stefani (Danmarks Nationalbank). Dr. De Stefani's will discuss the cause and implication of housing booms and busts, with an emphasis on mortgages as triggers of financial crises. She will give an overview of academic discussion about the causes of boom-bust cycles in US housing markets in the 2000s. This discussion will emphasize the psychological drivers of such a phenomenon, based on over-optimistic price expectations and how housing purchase and mortgage leverage may depend on such over-optimisms or over-pessimism. Dr. De Stefani will explore the consequences of mortgage credit expansion, focusing in particular on employment creation and destruction over the business cycle. This is a webinar for young scholars with research interests in empirical macro-finance. We will have a 45 minute lecture by Dr. De Stefani, after which we will have about 15 minutes left for questions and discussion. We look forward to seeing you all online!

Learn more

In-Person

New York, United States

20 Jun 2019

PDI Conference in NYC

Selected young scholars, based on participation in the webinar series, academic qualifications, diversity, etc. will be given a chance to attend the PDI conference in New York.

Learn more

Webinar

Online

5 Jul 2019

Richard Vague - A Brief History of Doom

We are delighted to host Richard Vague, a leader of the Private Debt Initiative and chair, of the Governor's Woods Foundation, for a final webinar in our series. Richard Vague will present insights from his most recent book "A Brief History of Doom - Two Hundred Years of Financial Crises". Financial crises happen time and again in post-industrial economies—and they are extraordinarily damaging. Building on insights gleaned from many years of work in the banking industry and drawing on a vast trove of data, Richard Vague argues that such crises follow a pattern that makes them both predictable and avoidable. Reviews: "Debt booms are the Achilles heel of modern economies, and nobody understands this better than Richard Vague. It takes a former banker to expose the folly of lenders in fueling credit booms that lead to devastating financial crises. In his sweeping account of 200 years of financial history, Vague builds on his intimate understanding of banking to explain how private debt booms put economic and social prosperity at risk. This is a must read for anyone who wants to see the next crisis coming."—Moritz Schularick, University of Bonn "Richard Vague unmasks a very important insight that financial crises throughout history have originated in bubble formation in the private sector. This diagnosis presents a huge challenge to the political system regarding how to implement the preventative medicine to impede bubbles. The stakes are high for preventing prolonged economic downturns, and the impotence of the public sector is devastating to the reputation of experts and governance, not only in the financial sector but across every division of government. The demoralization on both the left and right after the Great Financial Crisis remains a major contributor to the politics of today. Vague challenges us to face up to these costs."—Robert Johnson, Institute for New Economic Thinking "Just when U.S. regulators and lenders are showing signs of forgetting the lessons of the 2008 financial crisis, Richard Vague comes out with this timely treatise on the dangers of excessive private debt. Deeply researched yet easily understandable, it's must-reading for anyone who wants to understand the financial crises of the past— and anticipate the catastrophes of the future."—Rich Miller, Bloomberg News "Debt is always the biggest indicator of where financial crises will strike next. But while most people focus on government debt, private debt has been overlooked as a risk factor. Richard Vague rectifies that problem—and given that corporate debt is now at record highs—there couldn't be a better time to read his book."—Rana Foroohar, Financial Times

Learn more
Working groups
  • Financial Stability
  • Economic History
  • Complexity Economics
Project Organizers
YSI Profile Image

Marc Adam

YSI Profile Image

Whitney Harris

YSI Profile Image

Carolina Mattsson

For questions, the Project Organizers.

YSI Webinar

Prof. Moritz Schularick - The Great Leveraging: Credit and the Macroeconomy

April 4 2019, 17:00

We are delighted to have Prof. Moritz Schularick (University of Bonn, INET) join us for the first of our three-part webinar series on private debt and the credit cycle.

This is a webinar for students with research interests in empirical macro-finance. We will study the growth of finance and ask how and why credit cycles and time variation in the price of risk in financial markets affect the macroeconomy and financial stability.

We will have a quick introduction by the organizers, followed by a 45 minute lecture by Prof. Schularick. We will have about 15 minutes left for questions and discussion.

We look forward to seeing you all online!

Recording

You must login to see recordings from this webinar.

Time & Date

Start: April 4 2019, 17:00*

Duration: 70 minutes

*Time is displayed in your local time zone (Africa/Abidjan).

Presenters
External Presenter

Moritz Schularick (University of Bonn, INET)

Prof.

Share invitation

Join us for a Webinar!

Topic: Prof. Moritz Schularick - The Great Leveraging: Credit and the Macroeconomy

Time: April 4 2019, 17:00 (Timezone: Africa/Abidjan)

Join from PC, Mac, Linux, iOS or Android: https://ysi.ineteconomics.org/project/5c795a6826872107f94eb1bc/event/5c97b1b071ec6d391eb7938e(modal:login)