The 4th Price of Money and Theories of Inflation

The Price Level and the Inflation Rate

March 2021 - June 2022

In this Webinar Series we will invite scholars to present and discuss different perspectives and theories of the price level inflation.

Webinar Series

Description

The fourth price of money is the price level — the price of money in terms of commodities or goods. We call it the fourth price because Perry Mehrling's Money View tends to emphasize three other prices of money: par, interest rates, and exchange rates.

Getting a handle on inflation — an increase in the price level — has been a challenge for economists across different historical episodes. Today, inflation is again at the forefront of policy debate. While some advanced economies have been struggling to bring inflation back, some emerging economies are still struggling to tame it.

In this Webinar Series we will invite scholars to present different perspectives and theories of inflation. The format consists of a 25-30 minutes presentation of one speaker followed by questions from the audience and discussion.

UPCOMING EVENTS

Online

17 Apr 2021

Webinar

The Great Demographic Reversal with Charles Goodhart and Manoj Pradhan

Are we heading into a future with higher inflation, higher interest rates and less inequality? That is what Charles Goodhart and Manoj Pradhan propose in their book 'The Great Demographic Reversal: Ageing Societies, Waning Inequality, and an Inflation Revival'. Goodhart and Pradhan propose that the underlying forces of demography and globalisation will shortly reverse multi-decade global trends of lower inflation, lower interest rates, and more inequality. “Whatever the future holds”, the authors argue, “it will be nothing like the past”. Deflationary headwinds over the last three decades have been primarily due to an enormous surge in the world’s available labour supply, owing to very favourable demographic trends and the entry of China and Eastern Europe into the world’s trading system. This book demonstrates how these demographic trends are on the point of reversing sharply, coinciding with a retreat from globalisation. The result? Ageing can be expected to raise inflation and interest rates, bringing a slew of problems for an over-indebted world economy, but is also anticipated to increase the share of labour, so that inequality falls. This webinar is a conversation with the authors about their book, their claims, and their theory of the price level and inflation. About the authors: Charles Goodhart is Emeritus Professor of Banking and Finance at the London School of Economics. Charles previously was a monetary economist at the Bank of England, becoming a Chief Adviser in 1980. Manoj Pradhan is the founder of Talking Heads Macro, an independent macroeconomic research firm. Manoj was previously Managing Director at Morgan Stanley and led the Global Economics team there.

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PAST EVENTS

Online

27 Mar 2021

Webinar

Two routes back to the old Phillips curve

The Phillips curve posits a trade-off between inflation and unemployment and has long served as the workhorse model of inflation for most economists and Central Banks. Although the conceptual foundations of this relationship have been a subject of debate, the relationship seemed well-supported by the data for many decades. However, since the 1960s, the slope of the curve (a measure of the responsiveness of inflation to a decline in labor market slack) has diminished significantly. Despite the flattening of the Phillips curve, Blanchard has recently argued that it is still "alive and well." According to Summa and Braga (2020), there are "two routes" to this old Phillips curve: the mainstream route and the conflict-augmented alternative. In this Webinar, we will have a conversation with the authors about these two alternatives:i) the amended mainstream, which considers demand-pull inflation and full incorporation of inflation expectations into money wages and;ii) an alternative non-neoclassical conflict-augmented Phillips curve that assumes no labor scarcity, cost-push inflation, and expectations that are not always fully passed on to nominal wages. The full paper can be found here: https://serialsjournals.com/abstract/42980_4-summa.pdf About the authors: Ricardo Summa is professor of Economics at the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, Research Fellow at the National Council for scientific and Technological Development (CNPq) and Associate Editor of the Review of Keynesian Economics. Julia Braga is Associate Professor at the Faculty of Economics at Federal Fluminense University (UFF)

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Online

13 Mar 2021

Webinar

Reading Group Recurrent Meeting

Welcome to week one of the Price Level (Fourth Price of Money) discussion and webinar group. We have a weekly standing video meeting time at 9 am Eastern Time (America/New York) every Saturday. For this coming Saturday, March 13th, we will be reading and discussing "Two routes back to the old Phillips curve: the amended mainstream model and the conflict augmented alternative" by Ricardo Summa and Julia Braga https://serialsjournals.com/abstract/42980_4-summa.pdf The following week, we are hoping to have one of the authors with us for a webinar to talk about the paper and answer questions. We also have a Discord server for ongoing discussion: https://discord.gg/yD8psxqe3x

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Online

20 Mar 2021

Webinar

Reading Group Recurring Meeting

Welcome to week two of the Price Level (Fourth Price of Money) discussion and webinar group. Our weekly standing video meeting time is 9 am Eastern Time (America/New York) every Saturday. For Saturday, March 20th, we will be continuing our discussion of "Two routes back to the old Phillips curve: the amended mainstream model and the conflict augmented alternative" by Ricardo Summa and Julia Braga https://serialsjournals.com/abstract/42980_4-summa.pdf On March 27th at 10 am Eastern time, the authors will join us for a webinar. See our Discord server for ongoing discussion: https://discord.gg/yD8psxqe3x

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Online

10 Apr 2021

Webinar

Reading Group Recurring Meeting

This week, we're discussing chapter 5 of "The Great Demographic Reversal" by Charles Goodhart and Manoj Pradhan. The title of the chapter is: "The Resurgence of Inflation." Our weekly standing video meeting time is 9 am Eastern Time (America/New York) every Saturday. On April 17th at 12 am Eastern time, the authors will join us for a webinar. See our Discord server for ongoing discussion: https://discord.gg/yD8psxqe3x

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Working groups
  • Financial Stability
Project Organizers
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Nathalie Marins

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Alex Howlett

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Mateusz Urban

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Jay Pocklington

For questions, the Project Organizers.

YSI Webinar

Reading Group Recurring Meeting

April 10 2021, 13:00

This week, we're discussing chapter 5 of "The Great Demographic Reversal" by Charles Goodhart and Manoj Pradhan.

The title of the chapter is: "The Resurgence of Inflation."

Our weekly standing video meeting time is 9 am Eastern Time (America/New York) every Saturday.

On April 17th at 12 am Eastern time, the authors will join us for a webinar.

See our Discord server for ongoing discussion: https://discord.gg/yD8psxqe3x

Recording

You must to see recordings from this webinar.

Time & Date

Start: April 10 2021, 13:00*

Duration: 60 minutes

*Time is displayed in your local time zone (Africa/Abidjan).

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Join us for a Webinar!

Topic: Reading Group Recurring Meeting

Time: April 10 2021, 13:00 (Timezone: Africa/Abidjan)

Join from PC, Mac, Linux, iOS or Android: https://ysi.ineteconomics.org/project/6045416b252c4204141d7be0/event/60556a4a9acd5704d3937570